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Michael Young hit .284/.339/.402 last year, which put his .741 OPS 11th in the majors. Last year came after five straight seasons with an AVG over .300 (last four over .310). So you could chalk about 2008 to a down year for Young or it could be a sign of things to come. Young's BABIP fell last year, which led to a drop in his numbers across the board. That's another sign of it being just a down year, but unfortunately for Young, it happened at the same time his line drive rate dropped. A drop in line drive rate is a good explanation for a drop in BABIP, which could indicate a drop in his physical tools. At 32 years old, this seems like a good possibility, which brings me to my real point about Young's lack of trade value. In his age-32 through age-36 seasons, he is set to make $16 million annually. When comparing this amount to valuation methods like the one at FanGraphs, it becomes obvious that this is a bad contract. Young's most valuable season, 2006, is valued at $13.5 million. His 2008 is valued at only $7.5 million. Looking at a multi-year projection system like PECOTA ($), it's not hard to see him being worth half of what he's owed over the length of the contract. That means that Michael Young and his contract are likely to be a net negative at the end of the contract in 2013.
So if we view Michael Young as being worth less than what he's owed, the only type of trade that would make sense is one in which a bad contract is going back the other way. Is there such a trade available and would the Rangers be willing to take on a bad contract in exchange? I highly doubt the Rangers would be willing to make such a trade. Over at MLB Trade Rumors, it was mentioned that "Young has been loosely linked to the Twins, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, and Royals."
The Twins don't really have the bad contract to send back that would make Young appealing in trade. The Mets have Luis Castillo, but his value is probably even lower and the Rangers would have no use for Castillo. The Angels have Gary Matthews, Jr., but the Rangers don't have much use for Matthews. The Dodgers have Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, and Juan Pierre on bad contracts. Jones and Schmidt could be interesting targets, but there's not really any reason why the Rangers would want their bad contracts over Young's. The Royals have Jose Guillen, but I don't see any reason why the Rangers would do that either.
There is one other way that Young could have trade value, and that's if the Rangers are willing to send a boatload of cash along with him in exchange for prospects. I guess that's possible and would be great for the Rangers, but it would take one extremely desperate trade partner to make it work. We're not at that stage now. Maybe at the trade deadline, but I have a feeling that the Rangers are going to have Young for the length of this contract.
10 comments:
I don't think of Young as a bad contract, but his defense might warrant a switch to 3rd base on a new team. It seems like the majority of the rumored teams would switch to 2nd or 3rd base.
My team signing Carlos Silva to a 4-year $48 million deal is more of what I would consider a bad contract, with a record of 4-15 and an ERA of 6.46 last season. Young is at least an all-star caliber hitter.
Good post.
Sincerely, PF
PF, I think of both of them as bad contracts - just to a different degree. Young is projected (which he could exceed) to be worth about $40 million over his next five years, but he's going to be paid $80 million. Silva is projected to be worth about $5 million over the next three years since he most likely won't be as bad as he was last year (which isn't to say he'll be good), but he's going to make $36 million.
So even though Young's a good player, he'll be a net negative $40 million over five years. Silva's a below-average player, and he'll be a net negative $31 million over three years. Neither scenario's good.
Those stats you used to determine Young's value do not take into account that he was hitting like that most of the season while playing with a broken hand. Even so, he was still one of the best clutch hitters in the league last year. Also, his leadership and the fact that Ranger's fans will hang Daniels from the nearest tree if Young gets traded (let's face it, after trading away Chris Young, Danks and Galaraga for NOTHING, we're about ready for Daniels's head on a platter anyways). So, does he have trade value? Yes! Should we trade him? NO.
-Shed
I missed on the fact that Michael Young had a broken finger (not hand), which happened in late July. However, his performance in August and September is on par with his performance in May, June, and July. Other than March and April, Young just didn't hit as well as he usually does. At 32, it's not unheard of for a player's decline to begin.
birk
I don't know that he's of value but any team that's in need of a player of his apparent caliber may well be interested.
I liken the Texas Rangers to a franchise that merely exists as a bottom feeder. If anything their owner really doesn't give a damn about the franchise . Just as long as he gets his by way of the luxury tax payout.
tophatal .........aka thesprinter
The move to third isn't a bad idea. How does he rate, contractually and performance-wise, amongst AL 3B?
btroup1, I don't really know how he would do at 3B. Defensively, third base is a little more reaction-based than range-based, so it's hard to know how Young would handle the change. Offensively, I don't think Young has enough power to make that transition. The average AL 3B hit .267/.337/.431 and the average AL SS hit .266/.319/.375 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204012).
I've heard someone suggest Kinsler to the outfield, which would open second base for Young. That could make some sense.
The only "bad contract" that is close to that for the Twins is Mike Cuddyer. The Twins would love a 3rd baseman but ideally would like someone with a little more power then Young. I would seriously doubt that the Twins would trade Cuddyer straight up for Young with that contract of his. Too many years and way too much money for Young.
Young had 2 broken fingers, which definitely attributed to the decline of his stats, plus, he just didn't catch a few breaks.
As far as Daniels (as another poster alluded to) no one will hang Daniels from a tree for trading Young. Trading Young is in the best interest of the Rangers. They have Elvis Andrus waiting in the wings, and there is no room for Young in the lineup. I can see Davis & Smoak manning the corners, Kinsler at 2B, Elvis SS, Cruz, Hamilton, Murphy in the outfield, Taylor Teagarden catching and Max Ramirez as DH/Backup catcher. Young is an aging player w/o a position. A true fan would not be upset, a casual fan, yes. Better things are to come.. but no one will hang Daniels. Plus, Galarraga, no one had an inkling he would be that good. And are you dismissing everything Daniels has done trade-wise and drafting? HELLO... we have the #1 farm system (or the #2 farm system) starting in 2009. Daniels is OK in my books and should stay
MY will be worthless on the market until the trade deadline looms where desperate teams will overpay looking for that extra edge to propel them through the playoffs.
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